Due To the unstable economic situation in the country question regarding what will happen with the hryvnia in 2015, for a long time does not lose its relevance. An interesting fact is that in the background of important world events such as the shale revolution, the fall of oil prices and the extension of sanctions on Russia, no one can give a reliable forecast.
The End of 2014 has been difficult for residents of many countries, and Ukraine is no exception. The fragility of the situation pushed the experts to predict further developments. An official statement has dared to do only Andriy Novak, head of the presidency of the Committee of economists, and several other public entities.
Novak drew attention to the fact that the loans already in 2015 will have no influence on the change of the hryvnia. According to him, the stabilization of the situation will be possible only in case of suppression of any kind of speculation on the currency market, and also for parallel implementation of the strict policy of the National Bank.
According to Vladimir Starinets, a leading economist of the country, today Ukraine is in a state of preddefoltnom. The situation could become critical if Russia will demand the return of the three billionth loan. The situation can be mitigated only through austerity and in the case of suspension of all social benefits.
A More optimistic forecast failed to hear from the Manager of the company Capital Times Eric Naiman. He said that the hryvnia exchange rate in 2015 will vary in the range from 15 to 25 hryvnia per dollar, what is actually happening today. If we can implement all the planned reforms and to attract investors, the situation is equalized by the end of the year.
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On the question of what will happen to the hryvnia, did not dare for a long time to answer even the NBU, as he has applied his Analytics to the Cabinet of Ministers within the set deadlines. The Cabinet had to use the forecasts of investment bankers and economists, as officially stated by the Minister of Finance Natalia Yaresko. At steady state, the economy, the Central Bank annually provides a forecast of the hryvnia to calculate the draft budget for next year. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk unexpectedly for all has officially stated that the draft State budget for 2015 actually have a prospective rate, which is in fact far from the real picture. According to him, the hryvnia to the dollar was supposed to match the ratio of 1:17.
Many economists confidently say that soon the hryvnia will continue its decline. The tendency directly connected with military operations in the East of the country. And it's not even that the maintenance of compatriots who gathered to protect the country, the money is spent from the budget. The cause of the phenomenon lies in the fact that the events of recent years have caused the closure of a number of enterprises in the East. In accordance with preliminary estimates, this part of the country is concentrated about 15-25% of the companies that once formed the export power of the state. The closure led to a reduction of inflow of currency in the state.
It Should be said that to the East is the largest agglomeration of the country, which previously acted as active consumers. Despite stabilising the balance of payments, the volume of imports fell, along with the purchasing power of the population. The trend is that while the situation in the East will not change the rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia, the dynamics of which in recent times points to a temporary correction in the near future will continue to fall. Do not forget that this is only one of probable variants of development of events.
Distributed forecast of analysts considering what will happen with the hryvnia this year, which indicates its further fall, and even about the devaluation in connection with cardinal changes in the Ukrainian financial market. As prerequisites for the devaluation of considering a mass withdrawal of investments from States that 90% were related to the people previously in power. The outflow of funds was the cause of the pressure on the exchange rate.
The Ukrainian hryvnia, the price of which has fallen significantly over the last six months will continue to decline, due to mistrust to the financial sector. Over the past year to more than 30 banks in the country was introduced a temporary administration. According to preliminary estimates, a similar fate threatens not less than 30 financial institutions. People receiving from the Deposit insurance Fund in the range of 200 thousand hryvnia, immediately change them for currency, which only creates demand and makes the dollar rise in price. On the basis of the panic that prevails in society, and starting from the attempts of people to save their money, analysts say that the Ukrainian hryvnia is going to fade.
Trying to find the answer to the question about what will happen with the hryvnia in 2015, experts have straps at the level of 40-50 hryvnias per dollar. Daunting for many the future stems from the inability to use international tranches with the aim of raising the economy or to replenish the gold reserve, as the foreign partners barely covers the external debt of Ukraine.
Consider a negative scenario of development of events makes the fact that for the past year, the national Bank systematically produces the refinancing, which amount has already reached 1 billion. This is the actual increase in the money supply in the country, increasing supply in the market and, consequently, the fall in the value of the monetary unit. You can talk about panic, the almost complete sale of the gold reserve and of the military conflict, which do not allow the experts optimistic forecasts.
The media often repeats the information that the worst scenario will be one in which the hryvnia to the dollar would correspond to a ratio of 1:25. If you consider the fact that the black currency market this course has already taken place, we can talk about the scenario. Many experts recommend not to rush and focus on the high probability of a repeat of the trend. The situation is viewed in a negative way in case of refusal of the International monetary Fund in loans. At the moment it is external sources of funds are the only opportunity for the country to cover the needs of the state for the next year. According to preliminary estimates, the country needs 25 to 26 billion dollars financial support. 11-12 billion is able to allocate the IMF. Based on this fact, economists do not speak with certainty about how much will cost the Ukrainian hryvnia in the near future, as its fate is largely dependent on the decisions of an international financial institution.
The Forecast of the hryvnia is directly connected with a situation that is likely to unfold in the country. Proceeding from the negative shades of the most probable scenarios, we can talk about the coming acceleration of growth of about 5%. Unemployment may reach the figure of 10%. In the labor market will begin challenging times. There is a high probability of raising the retirement age. The minimum income will remain at the same level. If the IMF will give the loan, the government will be forced to raise tariffs for housing and communal services. In particular, electricity, hot and cold water will cost four times more expensive. Rising food prices will become a natural phenomenon. Despite the fact that the forecasts remain forecasts and the situation in the country may change dramatically after the intervention of wealthy partners at any time, people do not cease to panic and worry.
In one of his speeches Ustenko has officially declared that the hryvnia, the schedule lately has been directed to the North and even touched the mark of 25 units per 1 U.S. dollar, has the potential to rollback to a value of 12 hryvnia per dollar. To achieve this goal will have to implement a range of upgrades that will affect almost all spheres of life. The forecast will be real, if to cut state allowances to the official salary of civil servants and cut subsidies to ease the impact on the domestic business, which will lead to the return of capital to the country. To forecast the situation will become more real, if to minimize costs and to install a regime of austerity.
If at the end of 2014 and early 2015 most forecasts, which raised the ratio of hryvnia to other currencies, had a negative connotation, today the mood in society has changed significantly. A large percentage of forecasters ceased to prophesy the rise of the dollar, relying on the narrowing of the exchange rate corridor to a range of from 21.5 to 23.5 hryvnia per dollar. This trend, when...
Alin Trodden - author of the article, editor
"Hi, I'm Alin Trodden. I write texts, read books, and look for impressions. And I'm not bad at telling you about it. I am always happy to participate in interesting projects."
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